Shiv Sena-BJP tussle: Is Maharashtra heading towards a minority govt? What is the past experience?
aharashtra's post-election politics has been full of twists and turns like a T20 cricket thriller spread over a Test match. The Maharashtra Assembly election was supposed to be a BJP-Shiv Sena versus Congress-NCP contest but when results came out it turned into a Shiv Sena versus BJP game.
Of the four players that have a credible possibility of forming the next government, the BJP -- the single-largest party in the assembly -- appeared to have opted out of the race for government formation for now. Devendra Fadnavis resigned without staking claim to form the next government.
However, on Saturday, Maharashtra governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari asked the BJP to convey its willingness and ability to form the government.
The BJP has not drawn curtains on its alliance with the Shiv Sena. It is apparently waiting for the Shiv Sena to make that decision. Whosoever takes that call, the other will likely play the victim card and make future moves to align with the Congress-NCP.
Given the situation right now, the BJP is unlikely to make the first move. This leaves a possibility for the formation of a minority government in Maharashtra. The only other viable combination could be an alignment of the Shiv Sena, the NCP and the Congress. Together they have 154 seats in the 288-member Maharashtra assembly.
If both the NCP and the Congress join a government led by the Shiv Sena, it will have a majority of its own. But while Sharad Pawar may allow the NCP to be part of a Shiv Sena nominee-led government, Congress president Sonia Gandhi is understood to be against the idea. The Congress stands to lose "secular" votes elsewhere if Sonia Gandhi joins hands with Uddhav Thackeray, the Shiv Sena chief. The Shiv Sena is taken as a stronger advocate of Hindutva politics than the BJP.
This means a non-BJP government in Maharashtra would be a minority one, with 110 MLAs plus a few Independent members of the assembly. Congress would be extending outside support to such a government.
There is another outside possibility that the NCP-Congress accepts an invitation to form a government if Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari asks the coalition's leadership. In such a situation, the outside support may come from either the Shiv Sena or the BJP. The Shiv Sena, because it would be able to "punish" the BJP for "breaking promise". The BJP may find an "excuse" in boasting its claim of being "the party with a difference".
In whichever case, it can only be a minority government if the BJP is not a part of it. For the record, BJP's was a minority government in 2014 when Devendra Fadnavis took an oath and proved majority on the floor of the house by a voice vote.
However, minority governments have historically been unstable and crisis-ridden. Devendra Fadnavis secured majority after the Shiv Sena joined his government after sitting in the Opposition for some time, but he had a tumultuous relationship with Uddhav Thackeray's party.
Indira Gandhi too faced difficulty in running the first minority government at the Centre. She ran such a government in 1969-70 for a year after the Congress split over her leadership. Indira Gandhi had to finally recommend the dissolution of the Lok Sabha and face election.
In 1989, the VP Singh government faced the same problem. It banked on the outside support of the BJP, which gave feelers to Chaudhary Devi Lal, a challenger to VP Singh and became hostile after the Mandal Commission report was implemented. The Ayodhya campaign was given an aggressive push. Finally, the VP Singh government fell.
In came the Chandrashekhar government, which had only about 64 MPs. The Congress of Rajiv Gandhi helped him win the trust vote. The government lasted only seven months and mid-term poll was called.
The next government was also a minority government. PC Narasimha Rao became the prime minister. The Congress had won 244 seats -- 28 short of majority and had not entered into a formal alliance with any party for majority. Though the Rao government is known for bringing globalisation to India but to save his government a no-trust vote, Rao had to battle the infamous JMM bribery scandal.
The decade of 1990s is also full of such examples. Atal Bihari Vajpayee formed a minority government in 1996 and resigned without facing a trust vote in 13 days. Experimental governments of IK Gujral and HD Deve Gowda too came in quick succession and collapsed.
In Uttar Pradesh Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati experienced similar instability. The trend still continues. In Karnataka last year, the BJP formed a minority government under BS Yeddiyurappa, who failed to "manage" additional MLAs and resigned before taking a floor test.
HD Kumaraswamy of the JDS formed the next government piggybacking on the Congress. It lasted only 13 months. Yeddiyurappa returned thanks to massive defections in both the JDS and the Congress that gave the BJP majority. But political trouble has not yet subsided for Yeddiyurappa.
Maharashtra appears to be heading towards a minority government if the BJP and the Shiv Sena don't patch up.
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